Nothing is certain about the condition of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, including the line of succession if Chavez should succumb to the respiratory infection he contracted after his fourth surgery for an undisclosed type of cancer.
However, Chavez's family is at his bedside at a hospital in Cuba, and several sources indicate that he is near death, prompting speculation about what might happen to Venezuela's leadership if he should die.
The Venezuelan Constitution mandates a special election if the president becomes permanently unable to finish out his term, so if Chavez dies before his new term begins on Jan. 10, there will be another election.
In October of last year, Chavez won his reelection bid against moderate Henrique Capriles by only 8 points -- a huge margin in American politics, but a far cry from Chavez's 2006 victory where he won 63 percent of the vote.
Capriles is well-positioned to win in any special election following Chavez's death. His ground game is still in place, and his public support, particularly among the young and educated classes who were disappointed by his loss, is still high.
And Capriles could benefit from infighting among Chavez's leftist supporters. It's likely that National Assembly president Diosdado Cabello, a long-time ally of Chavez with a great deal of credibility among revolutionaries, will run for president.
If he does, the leftist vote will be split between Cabella and Maduro, almost ensuring a win for Capriles.
But the moderate opposition doesn't want to wait for Chavez to die. Chavez has not spoken or been seen in public since his surgery on Dec. 11, and opposition leader Ramon Guillermo Aveledo said that if Chavez cannot make the inauguration next week, the special election should take place within 30 days anyway.
It's unclear what the Constitution requires if Chavez cannot be sworn in on Jan. 10. Maduro can step in on a temporary basis for the president, but technically, Chavez won't actually be the president without a reinauguration.
But Chavez's fanatical support among many Venezuelans means that detail will probably be overlooked.
If Chavez continues to linger in his hospital bed, Maduro could potentially take over in a kind of regency, running the country ostensibly in Chavez's stead.
But it's unlikely that situation would last for long. Even though Chavez appointed Maduro as his heir apparent before his surgery, Maduro doesn't engender the same kind of loyalty, so he would be ripe for a political coup from his opponents, or opposition leaders would have a much easier timer enacting a special election.
The Venezuelan Constitution also allows presidents to be recalled, so a popular vote might cause power to change hands at the top, as well.
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