Eleven states can make the difference and decide if President Barack Obama will serve another four years as commander-in-chief.
The 11 states have been given a few nicknames, such as, swing states, battleground states, and toss up states. These states include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
Coincidentally, the 11 swing states all went in favor of President Obama on Election Day 2008.
Is it possible for Obama to maintain all 11 states on Election Day 2012, Nov. 6, but based on polling figures, a few could swing for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.
Colorado:
In 2008, Obama won Colorado with 53.7 percent to Arizona Senator John McCain, a percentage spread of nine percent.
Now in 2012, polling figures have shown the lead diminished by half or more. Based on the latest We Ask America poll, among 1,246 responses and a margin of error of 2.9 percent, Obama still leads but by three percentage points. Obama received 50 percent to Romney's 47 percent.
Real Clear Politics (RCP) averages Obama leading by 0.9 percent as he received 48.6 percent to Romney's 47.7 percent. The RCP average includes multiple polling data including Rasmussen Reports, CNN, American Research Group, Purple Strategies, Public Policy Polling, and a NBC, Wall Street Journal and Marist College.
Colorado, as it did in 2008, offers eight Electoral College votes in 2012 and although it is a toss up state, the RCP data projects Obama will once again win the state.
Florida:
Obama won the Sunshine State with 51.0 percent to McCain's 48.2 percent, a 2.8 percent spread.
Florida is one state that will likely go from Democratic blue to Republic red on Election Day 2012. Multiple polling figures have recently gone in favor of Romney but by a small margin. The latest We Ask America poll has the former governor leading by one percent, receiving 50 percent to Romney's 49 percent. The poll featured 1,146 likely voters with a margin of error of three percent.
Despite the lead, it is a decrease for Romney from the three percent lead on the previous We Ask America poll taken on Oct. 4, when he received 49 percent to Obama's 46 percent.
RCP averages Romney leading with 49.1 percent to Obama's 47.9 percent, therefore, Romney is currently projected to win Florida's Electoral College votes.
Florida this year has acquired two additional votes from the Electoral College compared to the 2008 election. In 2008, Florida offered 27 and now offers 29 votes, now tied with New York as the third most votes from the Electoral College after Texas (with 34 votes) and California (with 55 votes).
Iowa:
Obama had a clear victory in Iowa on Election Day 2008 as he defeated McCain with 53.9 percent to 44.4 percent, a 9.5 percent difference. Polls leading to the 2008 election did have the then-Illinois Senator leading by double-digits.
Leading to the 2012 election, the near double-digit victory is gone. Obama is now averaging less than five percent among most polls and have Romney leading a few.
Once again, We Ask America surveyed 1,174 likely voters on Oct. 30 and showed Obama leading by two percentage points. The president received 49 percent to Romney's 47 percent. RCP's average also shows Obama leading by two percent points but at 48 percent to Romney's 46 percent. The RCP average is down compared to their 2008 average, which was 15.3 percent.
Unlike Florida, which gained Electoral College votes, Iowa lost one, from seven in 2008 to six for 2012. Based on currently polling data, as narrow as it is, Obama is likely to win Iowa for a second time come Nov. 6
Michigan:
Michigan is Romney's home state, but he is likely to lose the state to Obama.
In 2008, Obama won with 57.4 percent to McCain's 41 percent, a 16.4 percent spread.
Now in 2012, Obama is still leading but by single digits or even tied with candidate Romney.
The Baydoun/Foster poll featured the candidates tied at 47 percent among the 1,122 likely voters with a margin of error of 2.9 percent. However, the tie is broken based on the latest Detroit News poll that shows Obama with 48 percent to Romney's 45 percent among 600 likely voters, but with a margin of error of four percent.
Michigan also lost a vote from the Electoral College, going from 17 to 16. Based on RCP polling figures, Obama will retain Michigan as a blue state.
Nevada:
Obama defeated McCain by double-digits on Election Day 2008, with 55.2 percent to 42.7 percent, a 12.5 percentage spread.
Leading to the 2012 election, the averages have slimmed to single-digits.
Gravis Marketing has the president leading by one percent based on surveying 955 likely voters with a margin of error of 3.2 percent. The SurveyUSA and LVRJ poll shows the president at 50 percent to 46 percent based on 1,212 likely voters surveyed.
As evident, Romney has gained ground in Nevada that McCain couldn't.
Nevada has gained a vote from the Electoral College, from five to six. Obama won it in 2008 and based on projections could narrowly win the six Electoral College votes.
New Hampshire:
New Hampshire is surrounded by predominately blue states but it has voted for the Republican presidential candidate in 2000 as George W. Bush won their four Electoral College votes. Ironically, Bush and Al Gore's final vote count from the Electoral College was four votes.
Since 2004, New Hampshire has voted for the Democratic candidate, and that includes Obama in 2008.
Obama won New Hampshire in 2008 by 9.6 percent, receiving 54.1 percent to 44.5 percent.
In 2012, the lead has shrunk to an average two percent, based on RCP averages. The latest NBC, Wall Street Journal, and Marist College also shows the president currently leading by two percent, receiving 49 percent to Romney's 47 percent with a margin of error of three percent.
New Hampshire is offering the same number of Electoral College votes as it did in 2000, 2004, and 2008, with four. Although it is too close to call, Obama is likely to win the four votes.
North Carolina:
It was a close race, but Obama managed to win North Carolina in 2008 by only 0.3 percent. Obama won the state with 49.4 percent to Romney's 49.7 percent.
Now in 2012, it appears the narrow race will go for Romney.
Polling figures in North Carolina have shown Romney averaging 3.8 points more than Obama, according to RCP. SurveyUSA featured Romney leading by five percent, 50 percent to Obama's 45 percent with a margin of error of 3.8 percent from the 682 likely voters. However, the Public Policy Polling numbers feature a tie at 49 percent with a margin of error of 3.6 percent.
Although there is an opportunity for Obama to win North Carolina, current projections state Romney will win the state's 15 Electoral College votes.
Ohio:
Ohio, Ohio, Ohio.
The state has been pummeled with campaign ads in 2012 as it did in 2008 when Obama won with 51.5 percent to McCain's 46.9 percent, a difference of 4.6 percent.
The 2008 victory lead is now averaging about half in 2012. The latest Ohio Poll and University of Cincinnati poll shows Obama leading by two percent based on the 1,182 likely voters surveyed. Rasmussen Reports, however, show a tie at 49 percent from the 750 likely voters, but a margin of error at four percent.
Despite the strong focus Ohio has on the election, it has lost two Electoral College votes compared to 2008 from 20 to 18. Current projections show Obama will win Ohio, narrowly.
Pennsylvania:
It might have lost an Electoral Vote compared to 2008, but it will still go for Obama in 2012. Granted, Obama's 2012 victory of Pennsylvania might not be the same as his 10.3 percent spread in 2008.
Obama is still leading polls but by half of the 2008 lead.
Based on the latest Franklin & Marshall poll has Obama ahead of Romney by four percentage points, with the president receiving 49 percent to Romney's 45 percent based on the 547 likely voters, but with a margin of error of 4.2 percent which could sway things for Romney.
RCP's average shows Obama leading by 4.6 percent and they predict the incumbent to win Pennsylvania's 20 Electoral College votes.
Virginia:
It may have the same number of Electoral College votes as 2008, but it is likely not to go for Obama again in 2012.
Obama defeated McCain with 52.6 percent to McCain 46.3 percent, a percentage spread of 6.3.
Now in 2012, Romney is averaging numbers that could see him win Virginia's Electoral College votes.
Roanoke College has Romney leading by five percent with a margin of error of four percent. Romney receiving 49 to Obama's 44 percent has helped RCP average a potential Romney victory by 0.5 percent. Although it is likely for Obama to win Virginia, at the moment, Romney is projected to win based on RCP averages.
Wisconsin:
It is the home state of Romney's running mate Paul Ryan, yet it could go in favor for Obama.
Obama won Wisconsin with 56.2 percent to McCain's 42.3 percent but now in 2012, the numbers have decreased but still in Obama's advantage. The NBC, Wall Street Journal, and Marist College poll has Obama leading by three percent, receiving 49 percent to Romney's 46 percent. Rasmussen Reports however presents a tie at 49 percent but a higher margin of error at four percent compared to the NBC's three percent.
Wisconsin is averaging a Obama victory by approximately five percentage points, according to RCP. Due to the average, RCP projects Wisconsin's 10 Electoral College votes to go for Obama.
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