While President Obama hasn't yet reversed his free fall in the polls, he has slowed his descent.
Several new national polls released over the weekend and Monday morning show slight gains for the president, with some of them giving him the lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney. Since the first presidential debate nearly two weeks ago, Romney's support has rallied, and last week many polls showed him taking the lead.
A new Washington Post/ABC News poll gives Obama a 3-point advantage over Romney among likely voters, 49 percent to 46 percent. While Obama often has an edge among registered voters, the "likely voters" category is a better predictor of election results, and Obama has struggled with that demographic recently, so this poll is a good sign for his campaign.
A Rasmussen poll still gives the lead to Romney by a point, however, that firm conducts automated polling calls to landline phones only, which can skew results toward older and more conservative voters.
Over the weekend, polls were mixed, with Gallup giving Romney a 2-point lead, but IBD/TIPP showing Obama ahead by 1. While an Ipsos/Reuters poll showed Obama still behind, he had gained points versus Romney. That particular poll included the most data from after the vice-presidential debate, and it seems that it was predictive of Obama's slight surge today.
Whether Obama is on the cusp of a comeback remains to be seen. Much will be determined by the candidates' performances in Tuesday night's second presidential debate.
The first presidential debate turned Romney's fortunes around. While Obama's poor performance hurt him in the polls, it was Romney's aggressive stance that won him the favor of undecided voters and re-energized a flagging Republican base.
The Washington Post/ ABC poll shows strong enthusiasm for Romney among 59 percent of his supporters, a complete turnaround from 5 months ago, when it wavered at 26 percent.
Still, the latest economic numbers have been good, and that reflects well on Obama with voters. Unemployment is at a nearly-four-year low, and consumer confidence is up, along with the stock market.
Romney's main point of attack against the president has been the economy, but with voters feeling more confident, it may not have the impact Romney needs to definitively break past Obama, especially in crucial swing states.
Romney has had luck recently in many swing states, but he still has yet to hold onto a lead in Ohio, without which no Republican has ever won the presidency.
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