Presidential Polls 2012: How Big Was Romney's Post-Debate Bounce?

Mitt Romney's bounce in the polls after his stellar performance in the first presidential debate last week is unmistakable. While the challenger usually gets a bit of a bump from the exposure, Romney's numbers are experiencing a sustained increase that has lasted an entire week.

One poll does not make a bounce, but this long after the debate, there are multiple polls pointing in the same direction.

"It's possible, even reasonable, to quibble with the likely voter sample of any individual poll," said Ron Brownstein, a senior political analyst at CNN, "but the overall direction of the surveys released since the debate is unmistakable: They all suggest that in that debate, Romney changed a critical dynamic in the race."

"Obama's widened lead in September depended in part on voters who were somewhat dissatisfied with his performance but were sticking with him because they did not view Romney as a viable alternative--largely because they didn't believe he understood or cared about people like them," he said.

Romney's debate performance changed that for a lot of people.

But how big a bump did Romney actually get? And will it continue, even after the vice-presidential debate on Thursday?

A Gallup poll showed Romney and Obama tied early this week, after Romney had been trailing by as much as 8 points. A Pew Research Poll actually showed Romney up by 4 points, a huge swing of 12 percent from the previous month.

Taken as a whole, Romney's gains are more measured, but still significant.

"We entered 16 polls into our database Tuesday that provided for a direct comparison to surveys that the same polling firms had conducted before the debate (but after the party conventions)," said Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.

"The magnitude of Mr. Romney's bounce in these polls was varied: there was as much a 12-point gain for him in one survey, while Mr. Obama actually gained ground in two of the 16 polls. But on average, Mr. Romney's gain was 3.6 percentage points."

That 3.6 percent was enough to catapult Romney back into contention in a race that had seemed all but over. Romney has less than four weeks to capitalize on his momentum and reenergized base, and Obama will do everything he can to stop him.

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