U.S. President Barack Obama arrives at JFK Airport in New York (Photo : Reuters)
With the presidential debates looming and election day only a month away, analysts predict that Washington will only see a minor face-lift, foreshadowing Obama returning to the White House, Democrats bolstering their ranks in Congress, and the Tea Party strengthening their influence in the Senate.
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Larry Sabato, an analyst for the University of Virginia's Center of Politics, argues that "If Obama wins by a wide margin-say, 53 percent to 46 percent - it would increase Democratic gains in the House from six seats to maybe 12 or 15. "
Princeton University's Sam Wang's forecast predicts a 74 percent probability that the Democrats will score the 25 seats that they need to wrestle control of the House from Republicans, according to the Chicago Tribune. Wang says that his statistics "suggest that in the coming weeks, we might look for (congressional) district polls to move in the Democrats' direction."
However, a study by the Rothenberg Political Report and Cook Political Report foresee the Democrats reigning in 15 seats in the House, but failing to overtake the Republican majority.
Both Wang and Sabato's predictions emphasize the domino effect that the presidential election will have on both House and Senate races nationwide. Sabato notes, "It's going to be very difficult for Republicans to take over the Senate if Romney doesn't capture the White House."
He adds, "That's a different evaluation than a year ago, when the GOP looked to be a good bet to grab the Senate."
Ethan Siegal, representative of The Washington Exchange, states: "I think we are heading to a status quo election."