Oscar 2014 Best Supporting Actress Predictions: Why Jennifer Lawrence and Octavia Spencer Are Not Front-Runners

The Best Supporting Actress race at the Oscars has heated up after Jennifer Lawrence and Octavia Spencer won key awards recently. 

Lawrence has been on most pundits' eyes for her role in "American Hustle" and the speculation was confirmed when the New York Film Critics awarded her the prize. However, a win with this organization does not secure her a second Oscar. The NYFCC is known for picking Supporting Actresses who will eventually be nominated for the Academy Awards. However, the last time they were right on the supporting Actress winner was in 2010 when Melissa Leo won for the "The Fighter." Last year, they chose Sally Field for "Lincoln" and in 2011 they chose Jessica Chastain for her roles in "The Help," "Take Shelter" and "The Tree of Life." Both actresses went on to get nominations at the Oscars but failed to win.   

Spencer's win is less significant but is still a boost for her campaign. The actress was snubbed from the Indie Spirit Awards and the Satellite awards so this win helps re-affirm that she is indeed a contender. However, the NBR has not been good at predicting a Best Supporting Actress nominee in the past two years. Last year, Ann Dowd won the award for her role in "Compliance" and in 2011 Shailene Woodley took home the award for her role in "The Descendants." Neither actress ended up getting nominated for the Supporting Actress category. It is also essential to note that the last time the NBR predicted the winner for the Oscars was in 2008 when Penelope Cruz took home the award for "Vicky Christina Barcelona." In 2009, Anna Kendrick ("Up in the Air") won and in 2010 Jacki Weaver ("Animal Kingdom") took home the prize; both actresses were eventually nominated for the Oscar but did not win.

Lawrence and Spencer still have a long way to go before they can secure Oscars. They have tough competition to get past including Oprah Winfrey, Lupita Nyong'o, June Squibb, Julia Roberts, Sally Hawkins, Lea Seydoux and Melissa Leo.

With two more organizations handing out awards on Sunday Dec. 8, things may change making the race a bit clearer.