Oscar 2014 Best Picture Predictions: Why '12 Years a Slave' Will or Will Not Win Best Picture

"12 Years A Slave" is now the front runner to win the Best Picture at the Oscars.

The movie won the Toronto People's Choice Award on Sunday, amplifying its chances of winning the Best Picture even further. The reason? In the recent years, four Oscar winners have also taken home the People's Choice Award. In 2010 "The King's Speech" won the award before going home with the Best Picture Oscar, and the same went for 2008's "Slumdog Millionaire," 1999's "American Beauty" and 1981's "Chariots of Fire." 

However, winning this award does not make your film the automatic Oscar winner. In 2012, Best Picture winner "Argo" was awarded the runner-up position at Toronto and lost to "Silver Linings Playbook." "Playbook" ultimately got nominated for Best Picture but lost to "Argo."

"12 Years a Slave" still has an uphill battle to climb. While critics have universally praised it, many pundits cautioned that the film was too harsh for the conservative Academy voters. Last year "Zero Dark Thirty" was loved by the critics and won the majority of the critics' prizes. However, when it came time for the Oscars, the film was snubbed in the Best Director category and lost Best Picture because it was too violent for the voters. It also did not help that the film was very controversial.

McQueen's film could easily suffer the same fate as he has directed two controversial films thus far. Both "Hunger" and "Shame" were awarded with a number of prizes and were hailed by critics. However, the Academy ignored both films.

Additionally, it does not help that the last time the Academy chose an edgy film was in 2007 with "No Country for Old Men." Recent winners "Argo," "The King's Speech," and "The Artist" could easily be considered lighter fare when compared to "12 Years."

At this point in the race McQueen looks like he'll strike gold on his third effort. However, it must be noted that sometimes films with early buzz are eventually forgotten. Such was the case with "Atonement" in 2007 and "The Descendants" in 2011. Whatever the case may be, the race has begun and the "For Your Consideration" ads will soon be popping up.