With NFL Free Agency set to commence March 12th, NFL organizations are racing to get their own players resigned or franchised, as well as get a leg up on who hits the market.
A new wrinkle has been added this year; starting March 9th, agents will be able to negotiate with teams, but would then have to hold out for three days before players sign the contract and make it official. Some may view this as a huge deal, but most in league circles already know that teams have been talking with agents since the NFL Combine in Indianapolis.
Space will be limited for the majority of teams, but they'll receive some levity with the cap-total being raised just above $123 million. We've already seen some big names around the league restructure their contracts to help clear up room. Tom Brady, Big Ben, and a number of other veterans redid their deals to be more cap-friendly in 2013, but don't go thinking they've done so out of courtesy to their team. They aren't taking paycuts, teams are just cleverly reworking deals to include higher guaranteed salaries and bonus because in the NFL, a contract is only as good as the guaranteed amount.
So as we're quickly approaching the NFL's annual Christmas, we'll take a quick look at some teams with money to spend, who may go where, and other assorted rumors.
Teams sitting pretty this year in terms of cap space are:
1. Browns - $46mil
2. Bengals - $45mil
3. Colts - $43mil
4. Dolphins - $36mil
5. Buccaneers - $32mil
Teams that will be sitting it out (but can change with cuts and trades) include:
1. Cowboys - $5mil over
2. Redskins - $3.4mil over
3. Saints - $3mil over
4. Rams - $1mil over
5. Raiders - $.5milover
Assuming each team spends roughly $6mil in signing rookies, those figures will come down, but it's a good point to start with.
The WR market is thin this year with few big names. Miami is currently trying to work out a deal with Brian Hartline, and the Kansas City Chiefs shocked everyone by cementing Dwayne Bowe with an estimated 5-year $50 million deal. So the market will be ripe for Mike Wallace and his deep threat ability. The Dolphins are the likeliest suitor, but also in the hunt are the Browns, Vikings, and the Patriots who are a dark horse that I see as the eventual winners.
It's a bad year to be an aging DE in the league, but a buyer's market for teams needing a pass-rushing stop gap. Osi, Freeney, and Abraham are all expected to latch on somewhere for cheaper than their value because of their ages, but they're a great option for a team looking to get over the hump.
Defensive Backs are the other position going to flood Free Agency, perhaps not at the top end, but some solid mid-range pieces that have upside. Sean Smith, Darius Butler, Aqib talib, and Cary Williams round out some solid options, but they'll each be looking to get paid. Smith in particular is already linked to have been negotiating with the Kansas City Chiefs, which would violate the leagues tampering rules, but there doesn't seem to be any repercussions stemming from it. Finally, Ed Reed and Dashon Goldson highlight the safety group, but I worry their contracts will reflect more on their name than their ability.
The Tight End and Defensive End positions are also filled with good options, but many of the impending Free Agents are looking to resign with their current franchise. Should they hit the market, expect some cap-friendly deals to be made that will potentially pay off hugely. Keep an eye on DE Michael Bennett to the Dolphins or Colts, with his brother TE Martellus also looking for a new home. A sleeper in this group is TE Brandon Myers of the raiders who'll be looking to get into a pass-friendly offense.
Running Back and Quarterbacks are the disappointments this year. No real starters are expected to be available, but there are definitely some decent clip-board holders and 3rd down backs out there that can come cheaply. However, with the way the running back position has been undervalued in the NFL, whether rightfully or not (ahem, Adrian Peterson), teams may be looking to fill their needs with high-upside options on Day 3 of the draft. For any team unhappy with their QB situation, Matt Moore is a guy who can step in and win games.
All in all it's a deep pool for teams to pick from, but not overly impressive in the top-end and I suspect teams will feel the same and will target some of their needs in the draft.
Expect deals to come flying in furiously at the stroke of midnight.
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