Republican challenger Mitt Romney locked down North Carolina today and moved into the lead in Electoral College estimates.
After a Rasmussen poll in North Carolina on Thursday that showed Romney ahead by 6 points, 52 percent to 46 percent, RealClearPolitics moved the state out of the "toss-up" list and into the "leans Romney" list, along with all-but-assured Romney supporters Arizona, Missouri and Montana.
North Carolina's 15 electoral votes push Romney up to 206 votes that he can count on, compared to 201 votes currently in Obama's column. The candidates need 270 to win the White House.
While picking up any state is big news for either candidate, Romney has been expected to take North Carolina since the first presidential debate, when Obama's support began to slide after a poor performance.
Romney's support is also growing in Virginia and Florida, which would give him a substantial edge in the electoral count.
However, those Southern states are low-hanging fruit for Romney. Even with a sweep of the South, he stand at 248 electoral votes, with no easy grabs in sight.
Sitting 22 votes shy of winning, he would need Ohio's 18 votes to give him a substantial chunk. Grabbing New Hampshire would put him over the top, but Obama has been polling well there.
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Michigan could also do it, but Obama has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania, and new polls out yesterday show him with a strong lead in both the other states.
Even if Romney took Iowa, Colorado and Nevada, he would still be 1 vote shy of winning, though that would tie him with Obama at 269 votes each, a very unlikely, but still technically possible scenario.
But Obama has a lead in Nevada, due in part to strong Latino support that won him New Mexico both this year and in 2008.
Obama is also leading in Iowa, according to yesterday's polls.
So again, it becomes a battle for Ohio, though the state is a little more important for Romney.
Obama can edge out his opponent if he sweeps every non-Southern state and loses Ohio. So if Romney takes Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Ohio, he still loses without one more pickup. Even New Hampshire's minuscule 4 votes would tip the scales in Romney's direction.
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