Immigration Reform News 2013: Failure of Reform Bill Could Flip Texas for Democrats

The longer the Senate takes to pass the bipartisan immigration reform bill, the less likely it will make it past the more conservative House of Representatives. And while it's too early to know whether all this effort will ultimately succeed, the consequences for failure will be devastating -- for the Republicans.

The only reason a fair number of Republicans are on board with immigration reform in the first place is the party's disastrous turnout among Hispanic voters in last year's presidential election.

A full 71 percent of Latinos nationwide voted for President Obama in 2012, many of those in crucial swing states like Florida, Nevada and Colorado. In fact, a more even distribution of Hispanic votes would have given Mitt Romney the presidency.

New Mexico has already turned blue thanks to Hispanic Democrats, and Texas could be next.

Latinos are one of the fastest growing ethnic groups in the country -- 50,000 Hispanic teenagers become eligible to vote in the United States every month. And Texas has one of the largest Hispanic populations of any state, as well as one of the largest percentages of Hispanics.

Texas also boasts many extremely conservative, anti-immigration politicians. Ted Cruz is the most vocal, a Tea Party darling opposed to a path to citizenship, as well as programs popular with many Latinos, like Obamacare.

Cruz is new to the Senate, elected only last year, so Texans are stuck with him until at least 2018, but John Cornyn, the state's other Republican senator, could suffer during his reelection campaign in 2014.

But local politics aside, the biggest shift could be in 2016, when Democrats statewide would be able to use the failure of an immigration bill to rally Hispanic voters in a presidential campaign.

Due to demographic changes, Texas will already be less red three years from now, and frustration at the plight of the undocumented, many of whom are family or friends of Texas voters, could push the state into the blue column, especially with a Hillary Clinton candidacy, which would also rally women voters, another constituency Republicans have written off.

In the end, Republicans must contend with a simple calculus: they cannot win another national election until they mend fences with Hispanic voters. Instead, the more conservative elements of the party seem happy to build those fences higher, literally.

If the immigration bill fails, it won't matter who wins Texas; the Democrats will take 2016. If Texas falls to the Democrats, that winning streak will extend into the next decade.