This weekend saw a few major surprises in the race for the Spanish league title. Two of the top three contenders picked up victories while the other team suffered yet another disappointment in a horrid season. Who is the favorite to win the title?
Barcelona lost 1-0 against Granada in arguably one of their easier remaining games. The team is now a full five points behind Atletico Madrid in the Spanish league standings and is no longer in control of their own destiny. In its final five matches Barcelona has to take on Athletic Bilbao, Villarreal, Getafe, Elche and Atletico Madrid. Bilbao is a resurgent side and defeated Barcelona at home a few months ago. Villarreal is sixth in the league and has an impressive home record. Getafe and Elche are locked in a relegation battle and will undoubtedly give it their best to avoid leaving the Primera Division. Finally Atletico Madrid is the front-runner to win the trophy and will likely be resting easier heading into this game.
So how does Barcelona win the league? The team needs to win its remaining five games to finish with 93 points on the year; that includes defeating Atletico Madrid. However, Barcelona also needs Atletico to lose another one of its five remaining games to have any hopes of being crowned champion. But the wish list does not end there. Barcelona also needs Real Madrid to lose at least one game the rest of the way.
This is fine and dandy, but what are the chances of either scenario actually happening? Atletico Madrid has lost three out of 33 games this season and it is unlikely that Diego Simeone's side will lost two out of its remaining five. The team's play thus far does not indicate this possibility. Atletico has Elche, Valencia, Malaga and Levante remaining on its slate before it plays Barcelona. Valencia is a team on the rise but Madrid defeated them 3-0 earlier this year. Atletico also took down Levante; the team has proven to be tough to take down at home and could provide a road block for Los Rojiblancos. Elche and Malaga are both mediocre sides and should be easy wins for Madrid.
Even if Atletico dropped points against Levante or Valencia on the road and lost against Barcelona, Los Cules have to hope for a massive implosion from Real Madrid. Los Blancos have the easiest schedule of the three contenders. They play Osasuna, Valencia, Espanyol, Real Valladolid and Celta Vigo. Three of those teams are in the relegation battle while the other two sides are middle of the table clubs. More importantly, Madrid plays three of its final five games at home with the only away matches taking place at Valladolid and Celta Vigo; both sides have losing records at home.
So who looks primed to take the crown? This season has been as unpredictable as it gets, but based on schedule Real Madrid still looks like it can aspire to win the crown. Atletico or Barcelona are primed to drop points in their final meeting which would essentially clinch second place at worse for Madrid. If Atletico drops points against its tougher opponents and Los Blancos win out, then they will surely be the champions at the end of the season.
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