Not too long ago, pundits expected Steven Spielberg's "Lincoln" to runaway with the Oscars. The film was nominated for 12 Academy Awards including the essential Editing, Director, and Best Picture nods. The director nomination was the major key to "Lincoln's" race as other front-runners "Zero Dark Thirty" and "Argo" were ignored in this race. However, "Lincoln" has not picked up the steam it was expected to garner and its chances of winning the Best Picture Oscar are looking increasingly slim.
The first case against "Lincoln" Oscar victory is its track record in awards season. The film has failed to secure major best picture wins and has only taken home the top prize from three critics' circles. When compared with the 14 wins for "Argo" and the 11 wins for "Zero Dark Thirty," the numbers clearly do not favor "Lincoln." Furthermore, Spielberg's movie lost the Golden Globe, Producers Guild of America, the Screen Actors Guild and the Critics Choice awards; these awards are usually taken home by the ultimate Oscar winner.
The second major factor against "Lincoln" is the lack of a directing nomination at the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA). The film scored 10 nominations at the BAFTAs, but the omission from the Best Director categories makes the film an underdog. More importantly, the British Academy makes a large contingent of Oscar voters and their decision to ignore "Lincoln's" direction could spell doom on Oscar night.
The biggest obstacle, however, is history. In the history of the Oscars no film has lost best picture after winning four guilds. "Argo" has taken home three and a win with the Writers Guild could secure the top prize at the Oscars on Feb. 24.
"Lincoln" could ruin "Argo's" quartet of victories by stealing away the Best Adapted Screenplay Award, but the guilds have already shown a preference for "Argo."But even a win with the WGA may not help its cause as this guild has never been a great prognosticator for the Academy Awards.
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